Flyers’ trade options, John Tortorella’s tenure so far and the politics of fandom: Mailbag

2022 is not going to be remembered as one of many shining moments within the lengthy and illustrious historical past of the Philadelphia Flyers.

The truth is, it in all probability will go down as one among their darkest years but.

With two days remaining within the calendar 12 months, the Flyers maintain the embarrassing title of the worst factors share of any NHL membership in 2022 — .337. How dangerous is that? It’s the worst single-year factors share not occurring in a pandemic or lockout-shortened 12 months since 2003, when the Pittsburgh Penguins posted a .327 mark.

The crew with the very best factors share in 2003? The Flyers. How the mighty have fallen.

Justifiably, the questions on this end-of-year Flyers mailbag aren’t precisely optimistic ones. Followers wish to discuss commerce prospects, ruminate on the low roster high quality and discover the very viability of Flyers fandom in these darkish occasions. One can solely hope that 2023 might be higher than 2022 — it could actually’t get a lot worse.

Onto the questions.

Word: Submitted questions could also be edited for readability and elegance.

Is “participating” with this crew enabling their incompetence and dangerous religion towards their fan base? I consider that it’s a must to construct a crew the onerous approach (hitting on excessive draft picks) and I believe it’s apparent the group doesn’t agree or simply cares extra about short-term revenue than big-picture success. Is there a approach for a fan like me to proceed on as a fan with out contributing to the issue? Or is there a greater perspective to take care of? — Michael P.

Ah, to fan or to not fan. That’s certainly the query.

One basic rule I’ve is to not ever inform folks how one can be a fan. I gained’t hesitate to refute what I see as incorrect perceptions relating to gamers and the membership as an entire. However some folks like hockey for the fights and hits; others love diving into the numbers; others wish to obsess over the draft and prospects; nonetheless others love the X’s & O’s of the sport. There are such a lot of methods to take pleasure in this nice sport, and hopefully, my protection helps readers to take pleasure in each it and their favourite crew somewhat bit extra.

That mentioned, the Flyers’ present state of affairs makes it tough for followers on a number of ranges.

First, there’s a powerful case to be made that rooting for the Flyers to lose this season would truly be a greater utilization of followers’ time, as counterintuitive because it may appear to the idea of fandom. In spite of everything, the highest of the 2023 draft class is loaded, and the addition of a Connor Bedard or Adam Fantilli would go a great distance in the direction of giving the group the potential famous person that it so lacks. Usually, it will rub me the flawed option to watch followers actively cheering in opposition to their very own crew. On this dismal state of affairs, nonetheless? I don’t suppose followers ought to really feel responsible in any respect in rooting for short-term ache to ship long-term achieve.

The more durable query, as Michael asks, is whether or not followers ought to really feel responsible for persevering with to comply with the crew in any respect, given the circumstances. My reply is that this: I don’t consider that persevering with to observe (and even attend) Flyers video games is essentially “contributing to the issue.” Sure, in concept, if each single fan boycotted the membership till, say, Chuck Fletcher was fired, or Comcast Spectacor bought the crew, then sure, these outcomes would nearly actually end result. However no fan base might pull off that diploma of unity. So blaming your self for the specified modifications not occurring isn’t honest.

On the flip facet, nonetheless, I don’t blame any followers who’ve determined that they’re merely by means of with the Flyers till the crew is successful extra persistently, even when the rising lack of curiosity within the crew isn’t good for my readership and job safety. Sports activities are alleged to be enjoyable, and the Flyers have been the alternative of enjoyable for the higher a part of three seasons now. That’s to not say that there aren’t enjoyable parts to the Flyers: Carter Hart’s improvement, the analysis of younger, unproven expertise, the each day “what’s going to he say subsequent?” teaching fashion of John Tortorella. However followers have each proper to find out {that a} crew is not price their time, and that doesn’t make them “dangerous followers.” It’s prioritizing their very own private happiness over the crew. And in fact, that’s wholesome.

What does the group take into account a profitable season at this level? They aren’t a playoff crew and so they don’t appear to be they’re gunning for Bedard. So are they actually gonna be pleased with a purgatory season? — Stephen S.

This query drives on the coronary heart of a query on the minds of many followers: What would permit Fletcher to maintain his job? As a result of for Fletcher to remain basic supervisor, the crew mainly has to have a “profitable” season, no less than within the eyes of possession.

However what could be a profitable season, of their estimation? In brief, it will be a season that convinces Comcast Spectacor {that a} full-fledged rebuild is pointless.

Now, rebuild means various things to totally different folks. After I say “rebuild,” I extra imply the acceptance of a rebuild mentality, not a tear-it-all-down, trade-every-single-useful-player scorched-earth technique. I’m speaking about no extra dealing draft picks for short-term options, no extra eight-year contracts given to gamers of their late 20s and no extra public denials or misdirections from the entrance workplace implying that it’s not going to take no less than just a few years to repair the state of affairs. However the Flyers’ possession group has by no means needed to go down that path. They wish to be satisfied that they will primarily retool this crew on-the-fly and get it again into common playoff competition in comparatively quick order. That’s what a profitable season seems like for Fletcher: important proof for possession {that a} pivot to a rebuild mentality isn’t vital.

So what would that entail?

It’s necessary to know that doesn’t essentially imply a playoff berth. Particularly after it grew to become clear that Sean Couturier would miss most (if not all) of the season along with his lingering again harm, I believe the group as an entire got here to a consensus that this Flyers membership wasn’t going to make the playoffs. However the hope is that the crew makes actual progress regardless. They’re searching for considerably improved competitiveness, higher underlying play, and sufficient optimistic developments from particular person gamers to create the makings of a win-now core, with out sufficient important unfavourable developments to make constructing round that core unattainable within the close to time period.

A few of these packing containers are being checked — this crew is extra aggressive, and gamers like Hart and Travis Konecny have taken important steps ahead. The issue is that the crew nonetheless is dropping most video games, and the evident reality is that regardless that the roster has its fair proportion of intriguing younger gamers (Noah Cates, Cam York, Owen Tippett, Wade Allison, even Morgan Frost), it’s not like that group is proving gifted sufficient to push this crew to common wins.

To sum it up, sure, I consider the Flyers could be pleased with a purgatory season. However this hasn’t even been a kind of — in any case, they entered Thursday with the fifth-worst document within the NHL. They’re actually dangerous.

What do you consider Tortorella’s option to cope with the media up to now? Looks like he already misplaced his cool too usually for not even half a season. What’s your expertise up to now? — Lars M.

I’ve loved protecting Tortorella.

I perceive the arguments in opposition to him. Sure, he loses his mood at occasions, and will be grumpy. I wasn’t on the journey to Columbus earlier within the season, however I didn’t suppose it was proper in that specific occasion that he selected to not discuss to the touring media after the sport, nor present an evidence for his absence that might have been accepted, akin to a household emergency or private sickness. It performed as Tortorella’s emphasis on accountability for his gamers not extending to himself after a troublesome loss, and it was a nasty look. That mentioned, it hasn’t occurred once more, and I’m prepared to chalk it as much as being an remoted incident.

On the flip facet, nonetheless, I discover Tortorella’s solutions to inquiries to be uniquely insightful. I’ve been fortunate sufficient to cowl just a few very sincere and forthright coaches in my comparatively quick profession as a beat author — Mike Yeo, Scott Gordon and even Alain Vigneault stand out particularly — however Tortorella simply provides extra newsworthy tidbits than any of them did, insights into Tortorella’s precise view on his gamers and the crew as an entire.

Plus, I benefit from the problem of protecting a “troublesome” head coach. Positive, Torts may not reply in a optimistic option to a few of my questions, and even snap at me now and again. However that makes it much more satisfying after I can pull a extremely good reply out of him. I believe the important thing to protecting Tortorella is to not take the dangerous moments personally. I get the sense he usually has a brief reminiscence, each along with his gamers and with media members. Have a nasty day with him? Shake it off, and be higher the following. I’m having fun with the problem.

Do the Flyers get a second-round decide in the event that they don’t signal Jay O’Brien, and if that’s the case, is it 2023 or 2024? Ought to this be the route they take (particularly if it’s a 2023)? — J M

Nice query. I checked with folks across the league, and I can affirm that if the Flyers select to not signal 2018 first-round Jay O’Brien by this summer season, they may certainly obtain a second-round compensatory decide consequently. It’s a rule within the CBA — if a crew can’t (or gained’t) come to phrases with a first-round decide, the league provides them a comp decide within the second spherical of the following draft after his rights expire, on the similar decide spot that he was taken initially. In different phrases, the Flyers would get the nineteenth choice within the second spherical in the event that they move on signing O’Brien.

Which 12 months would that draft decide manifest, nonetheless? That’s a bit extra sophisticated.

Technically, the Flyers have till Aug. 15 to signal O’Brien earlier than they lose unique negotiating rights with him. Because the 2023 NHL Draft is scheduled for June 28, that signifies that the O’Brien comp decide would possible be in 2024. My guess is that’s the way it will finally play out if O’Brien can’t persuade the Flyers to supply him a contract.

However there’s a approach for the Flyers to doubtlessly get the compensatory second-rounder in 2023 as a substitute. Mainly, if O’Brien is made conscious that he is not going to be signed months upfront, and he wish to get a head begin on skilled free company, I’m instructed that there’s an enchantment course of that might doubtlessly make him a free agent on June 1. In that case, the Flyers’ comp decide could be in 2023. However there’s no assure that enchantment could be authorized.

In brief, sure, if O’Brien shouldn’t be signed, the Flyers get a second-round decide as compensation. It in all probability would are available in 2024, however there’s an opportunity it might be 2023.

Kevin Hayes (Kyle Ross / USA At the moment)

Even when the Hayes/Torts drama is overblown, would any groups be all in favour of him on the commerce deadline, or is his contract an excessive amount of? Not making an attempt to eliminate him, however he suits the commerce fodder mildew of older man on rebuilding crew. — Eric F.

I wouldn’t rule out the likelihood totally, however a Kevin Hayes commerce does strike me as extra of an offseason transfer.

May groups have curiosity in Hayes at his $7.14 million cap hit for 3 extra seasons after this one? Uncertain, particularly on condition that if he’s moved, it’ll be the results of the Flyers being motivated to take action as a consequence of an absence of match with Tortorella. But when the Flyers have been prepared to retain as much as half of Hayes’ remaining cap hit, turning him right into a $3.57 million middle-six middle? Positive, there might be curiosity. That’s not only a cheap value for Hayes — it’s legitimately good worth. Don’t overlook that he has 30 factors in 34 video games, regardless of the lineup drama swirling round him. The man continues to be a darn good participant, and groups across the league notice that.

There are two necessary components that must be taken into consideration, nonetheless. Whereas a $3.57 million cap hit wouldn’t be too troublesome for a crew so as to add on the deadline after banking cap area all season, basic managers are sometimes hesitant to tackle important time period on the deadline, earlier than they’ve a full understanding of their future cap state of affairs. That’s why these offers are likely to occur within the offseason — when GMs have actually crunched the numbers and put collectively tough outlines of their monetary plans years into the long run. If the Flyers do look to maneuver on from Hayes, it wouldn’t shock me if he’s made obtainable on the deadline and conversations begin, however the deal itself waits till the summer season.

Lastly, there’s the easy variable of leverage. Sure, Hayes at $3.57 million (or no matter decreased cap hit the Flyers may select to hawk him at) is greater than honest worth, particularly given the significance of facilities within the NHL. However Fletcher — or no matter GM is operating the present in Philadelphia at that time — nonetheless has to create a market. GMs discuss, and if the scuttlebutt across the league is that the Flyers will simply purchase Hayes out absent a buying and selling companion, maybe GMs select to see if the Flyers will blink first, after which they will get Hayes for nothing besides cap area. That mentioned, if Hayes have been to be purchased out and hit free company this summer season, my guess is that he’d pull in additional than a three-year, $10.71 million contract (what it will be if the Flyers retained half), in order that cuts down on the inducement for groups to play hardball with the Flyers in commerce talks. Nonetheless, it’s a doable state of affairs that may’t be dominated out totally, relying in the marketplace’s view of the participant.

Travis Konecny has been in commerce rumors for the higher a part of two years. He’s having an excellent season however his numbers are inflated due to the “who else goes to attain on this crew” syndrome. Don’t you suppose it will be in the very best curiosity of the crew to promote excessive on him given his worth won’t ever be larger? — Nabeel R.

It’s an inexpensive query.

There’s actually a case to be made that buying and selling Konecny could be the suitable transfer, significantly if you happen to espouse the “tear all of it down” rebuild mentality. He’s having a powerful 12 months scoring-wise, and I believe his agitator mentality and inherent chippiness could be fairly interesting to contenders seeking to embark on lengthy playoff runs. With two extra years left on his contract at a good $5.5 million cap hit, Konecny might convey again fairly a bit in return — I think about a first-round decide and a B-level prospect no less than. I see the logic in transferring Konecny now, particularly given the truth that if that is his new regular, he’d be in line for an enormous elevate come 2025, and he’s clearly not a star-level expertise. Paying him like one just because, as Nabeel put it, somebody has to attain on this Flyers crew, could be silly. He’s simply not the form of game-changer that this group so desperately wants. I wouldn’t essentially oppose “promoting excessive” on him consequently.

That mentioned, I don’t suppose I’d personally do it.

Konecny is simply 25, and in my thoughts, is younger sufficient to nonetheless be delivering sturdy seasons when the Flyers theoretically might be poised to show the nook. No, Konecny isn’t a real top-of-the-lineup weapon on an excellent crew. However he would match fairly effectively someplace within the vary of the 4th to sixth most necessary ahead on that membership, and the Flyers might be nearer than one may suppose to slotting him in appropriately. It’s not that a lot of a stretch to think about by 2024-25, he might be usurped on the “significance” chart at ahead by the crew’s 2023 first-round decide, Cutter Gauthier and a wholesome Couturier. Immediately, Konecny suits once more.

I don’t suppose buying and selling Konecny is essentially the flawed transfer, and it will actually present an infusion of draft capital and make sure that they keep away from overpaying him on his subsequent deal. However given his rebound season, I once more see a path the place Konecny will be a part of the long-term answer in Philadelphia. I wouldn’t rush to maneuver him.

1. Rasmus Ristolainen: I’m unsure how possible this one even is, however Ristolainen’s contract so outweighs his precise on-ice worth. Each Fletcher or his successor owe it to the followers to see if there’s a marketplace for the blueliner, particularly on condition that he’s underneath contract for an additional 4 years after this one. Why not see if one other crew overvalues his ability set and you may get out of the deal? You’ve bought Ronnie Attard coming anyway, and York is displaying he can succeed on the suitable facet.

2. Kevin Hayes: Apparent causes — up to now, he’s not clicking with Tortorella, he’s 30 and he has three years left on a contract with a $7.14 million cap hit. I’m not against holding high-priced veterans round who will help construct the tradition that Tortorella is making an attempt to construct. But when Hayes can’t or gained’t absolutely purchase in, why not clear up some cap area if doable and perhaps get an asset or two within the course of if you happen to can?

3. Ivan Provorov: His age (25) isn’t a dealbreaker, however not like Konecny who has bounced again to 2019-20 type, Provorov mainly seems like the identical participant from the previous two seasons. Proper now, he’s extra of a second-pair high quality blueliner getting performed like a first-pair man out of roster necessity, and my concern there may be that his heavy utilization will put him right into a wage vary on his subsequent contract that he nearly actually gained’t be capable of stay as much as along with his precise on-ice play. I consider Provorov could be a implausible No. 3 defenseman on a contender. However he can’t be that on this crew. I believe he might be bought as a change-of-scenery candidate, and in fact, it is perhaps the very best factor for Provorov as effectively, to play on a winner that makes use of extra of a skill-based, rush-oriented fashion.

Noah Cates (Brad Rempel / USA At the moment)

Who’re the true play drivers on this crew? And who’s dragging everybody down? — Chris R.

There aren’t many!

Couturier actually certified, however who is aware of if he’ll as soon as he returns from his second again surgical procedure in the identical calendar 12 months (or, in a extra gloomy state of affairs, if he returns in any respect). Past Couturier and Travis Sanheim (who has been a powerful superior stat participant for years from the again finish), nonetheless? The record of potential play drivers is brief.

Noah Cates I consider may turn out to be one, even when he’s not fairly there but. He’s proper across the break-even level by way of anticipated purpose impression this season regardless of facing tough competition and adjusting to the middle place. As a middle-six winger, I consider he might completely be a play-driver (as he was final season), and maybe may even flip into one down the center in some unspecified time in the future. He’s solely 23, in any case, and his defensive metrics are already stellar.

Allison additionally graded out exceptionally effectively throughout his end-of-season stint approach again in 2020-21, and his impacts this season have been about break at the same time as effectively. I don’t suppose he’ll ever be a conventional “line-driver” within the sense that he carries the puck up ice always and controls possession, however he might become an excellent help piece on a line the way in which that Scott Hartnell was, successful puck battles alongside the boards, being a menace on the forecheck and proudly owning the high-danger scoring areas.

York additionally has play-driving potential to my eyes. His 50.80 % xG share at five-on-five simply leads the Flyers’ protection, and his mixture of clean skating and decisive puck-moving is a ability set that always results in sturdy superior stats. He’s not going to be the following Dougie Hamilton or Charlie McAvoy by xG or Corsi, to be clear, however he might persistently transfer the needle in a optimistic route if his improvement continues on this observe.

As for the play draggers? Most likely about who you’d anticipate: Nicolas Deslauriers, Zack MacEwen, Ristolainen (although his numbers this season haven’t been terrible, largely due to enchancment on the defensive facet). One title that has been low on the Flyers’ charts for 2 seasons operating now that considerations me? Joel Farabee, who’s within the fifth percentile by even power xG impression amongst forwards. That’s not nice for a participant who has lengthy been billed as a two-way stalwart. His recreation completely wants some work, particularly as a result of he’s not dynamic sufficient of a scorer to thrive as a pure one-way menace.

I believe it was wanted for each, although in all probability extra for possession than the entrance workplace.

The locker room desperately wanted a powerful infusion of accountability. By the tip of final season, I consider the crew as an entire was a bit too comfy with how far issues had fallen. Tortorella, after all, is the alternative of a “comfy” head coach. He always goals to push gamers out of their consolation zones with the purpose of getting essentially the most out of every particular person, and in some circumstances — Konecny particularly -— I believe the Flyers are actually benefitting from this method.

As for the choice makers within the group? I consider Tortorella’s exterior perspective will show useful, primarily as a result of he’s a voice exterior of the interior echo chamber, an echo chamber which has allowed these in possession to persuade themselves that they will retool their approach out of this and {that a} full foundational restructuring isn’t vital. The older advisers within the group have lengthy blanched on the thought of a said rebuild, as a result of they don’t consider it suits with the “all the time compete” id and tradition created by former proprietor Ed Snider. I consider that bias colours their imaginative and prescient, and in flip, has given possession — which cares greater than most followers notice about being perceived because the stewards of Snider’s legacy — the excuse they wanted to keep away from giving up on this damaged state of affairs and beginning over.

The good thing about including Tortorella — an unapologetically traditionalist hockey thoughts who has the respect of all the old-school guys within the group — is that he’s been screaming for months now that the emperor has no garments (this crew is nowhere close to competition). As you place it, it hopefully will function a much-needed dose of actuality from an unimpeachable supply.

Torts has been about as sincere about this crew and these gamers as anybody I can keep in mind. How lengthy is his leash actually? Will he be allowed to proceed to seemingly do no matter he desires (bench the main level scorer) even after Chuck is gone? — Eric B.

Tortorella’s leash could be very lengthy.

For starters, I believe that Comcast Spectacor’s urge for food for firing one other high-priced coach proper now’s fairly low. Don’t overlook that they’re on the hook for an additional season of Vigneault’s five-year, $25 million contract — they are going to be paying that by means of 2023-24. Would they pay Vigneault and Tortorella a mixed $9 million to not coach their crew subsequent season? I can’t think about they might.

However Tortorella’s job safety goes past cash. Possession actually likes Tortorella, for a number of causes. They really feel like he suits the character of the town of Philadelphia. He’s very simple to market as effectively — he’s rapidly turn out to be the face of the franchise, and one of many few folks concerned with the group that doesn’t instantly encourage anger from followers. Lastly, given the circumstances, they consider he’s executed a reasonably good job this season in making an attempt to make lemonade out of lemons, significantly given the crew’s harm luck. They’re not blaming Tortorella for the Flyers’ poor document.

If Fletcher is fired, does that equation change? Probably — in any case, a brand new GM very effectively may need his personal coach. That mentioned, I consider that possession is excessive sufficient on Tortorella that they’d mainly instruct a brand new GM rent to primarily discover a option to coexist with Tortorella. That may be simple if Fletcher’s successor proves to be Daniel Brière, on condition that the 2 are already constructing a working relationship. If it’s somebody from exterior the group, significantly a younger upstart? Maybe it will be more durable. However I nonetheless suspect that Torts could be effective, no less than for the primary 12 months or so.

(Picture: John E. Sokolowski / USA At the moment)