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VOLYN REGION — Burst river banks, thick mud and waterlogged fields may very well be seen for miles round northwest Ukraine’s border with Belarus on Thursday, making the prospect of a Russian assault from throughout the border unlikely for now regardless of current warnings from Kyiv.
Ukrainian officers have warned of a brand new looming Russian assault, with Belarus to the north named as one potential launchpad, as Moscow seeks to revive its faltering invasion.
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Russia and its shut ally Belarus have beefed up their joint navy grouping in Belarus and plan to carry joint aviation drills there from subsequent Monday.
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Towards this backdrop, the borderland’s thick forests and treacherous swamps are guarded by the Volyn territorial protection brigade, one in every of tons of of Ukrainian models recruited from native individuals prepared to defend their communities.
On the sidelines of coaching workout routines a number of kilometers south of the Russian border, troopers and officers from the unit instructed Reuters how the unusually gentle winter had given them a substantial tactical benefit.
“By yourself land, every little thing will provide help to to defend it – the panorama, a number of rivers, which have burst their banks this 12 months,” mentioned Viktor Rokun, one of many brigade’s deputy commanders. The fields and bushes round him had been submerged in murky lakes of chilly water.
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The unit’s spokesman, Serhiy Khominskyi, mentioned that help make the terrain unpassable had additionally come from an unlikely ally: the native beaver inhabitants.
“After they construct their dams usually individuals destroy them, however they didn’t this 12 months due to the conflict, so now there’s water all over the place,” he mentioned.
‘GATHERING FORCES’
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned on Tuesday that Russia was “gathering forces for an additional escalation” of the almost 11-month conflict between the 2 nations.
Ukraine’s prime normal warned in December that one of many potential instructions of a brand new assault may very well be Belarus, the place Ukraine’s navy estimates the presence of 15,000 Russian troops, whereas navy analysts put the determine at 10-12,000.
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Belarusian chief Alexander Lukashenko allowed Moscow to make use of his nation as one of many launchpads to invade Ukraine final February, when Russian forces had been overwhelmed again in an try and take the capital Kyiv.
Throughout the border on Thursday, the deputy commander of what Moscow calls its “particular navy operation” inspected Russian forces in Belarus. On the Ukrainian aspect, the Volyn brigade was busy working towards indoor fight and coming below artillery hearth.
Analyst Konrad Muzyka, who runs protection consultancy Rochan Consulting, instructed Reuters that though a Russian troop build-up may very well be noticed in Belarus, an assault into north-west Ukraine from Belarus would face huge difficulties.
“It’s a horrible place to conduct an offensive operation. There are a lot of watercourses there, only a few roads,” he mentioned.
“This makes it straightforward for Ukrainian forces to channel the motion of Russian forces into particular areas the place they’d be shelled by artillery.” (Reporting by Max Hunder; enhancing by Tom Balmforth)
